Tropical depression watch

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Jul 4, 2007 – A tropical depression is expected to form Wednesday or Thursday east of the southern Windward Islands.

The area with a barometric pressure of 1013 millibars is centered near 11 degrees north and 42 degrees and is travelling westward over warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean at 10 to 15 miles per hour (mph). Current wind speed is estimated to be near 30mph.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, which has forecasting responsibility for the Caribbean, say that the disturbance located about 1250 miles east of Barbados is showing signs of development and a tropical depression could form within the next 24 hours.

Global forecast models, which were run at midnight GMT Tuesday, are in good agreement that the system will travel West-northwest and could make landfall somewhere in the central Caribbean early next week. However, such long term models are highly inaccurate and the forecast is revised every 12 hours based on ever-changing wind, barometric pressure, and other environmental factors.

Should winds increase to 39mph, it will be upgraded to a tropical storm and named Chantal.

Invest 96L July 4

Visible Satellite 0915Z Jul4

Tropical depression watch

Bridgetown, Barbados, July 30, 2006 – A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has started to disintegrate removing the threat of an early development into a tropical depression. However forecasters are now watching another in the Caribbean Sea, hinting at possible development.

The National Hurricane Centre says that although the conditions remain marginally favourable, a tropical depression could still form in a couple of days.

The tropical wave with a 1012 millibar low on it was subjected to shear which essentially blew away the thunderstorms from the spinning centre. The system has not been able to recover and it is moving into an area where there is strong Saharan Dust in the atmosphere which will further dampen any rainfall.

In the meantime, another tropical wave over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands has become better organised and there is the potential for the slow development of a tropical depression to form, says the National Hurricane Centre.

This wave was being watched just over a week ago with the hurricane centre suggesting that it could develop, however it started to fall apart (just like the present Atlantic wave) as it approached the Caribbean islands. Now that it is in the Caribbean Sea, thunderstorms have been firing up and it is becoming organised.