Health official warns region to be prepared for bird flu

KINGSTON, Jamaica, January 15, 2007 - To be forewarned is to be forearmed says the old adage and a regional health official said that the Caribbean was in a unique position of being forewarned about the potential arrival of bird flu and avian influenza to be caught unawares.

Dr Ernest Pate, PAHO/WHO representative in Jamaica, told health, agricultural, and communications officials that unlike the earlier flu pandemics which spread across the globe and claimed millions of lives in the early 20th century, the Caribbean today knows beforehand about the flu from the H5N1 virus in Asia and Africa. In addition, he said that back in 1918 when the Spanish flu circled the globe, it was when transport was by sea and it took months for a transatlantic voyage compared to the fast air travel  today where it is possible to arrive on the other side of the globe in 24 hours or less.

He has called on the region to spare no effort to ensure that it can handle any outbreak.

"It has spread from Asia to the Middle East to Europe and we running the risk of this spreading to the Americas and by extension to the Caribbean," he told the participants of a two-day workshop on "Outbreak and Crisis Communications for Caribbean Countries" in Jamaica. Health, agricultural, and communications professionals from Jamaica, Belize, The Bahamas, and Cayman Islands attended the workshop. Another for the countries in the southern Caribbean will be convened in Trinidad Wednesday.

He said that of the 263 human confirmed cases of avian influenza up to January 9, there have been 157 deaths worldwide.

"That is 59.97 per cent mortality rate. I am not aware of any other disease that ended with such high level of mortality. We have not had that many confirmed cases but the fatality rate is very high."

He said that the virus in humans is a mutation of the virus infecting birds.

Pate added that if the virus arrives in the Caribbean and spreads "it will have significant devastating: effects". Not only would an economic impact be felt in the poultry processing and retail industries but also in the animal feeds sector, packaging, and other ancillary sectors.

Using forecasting software, Dr Pate said that within the first eight weeks of an outbreak, they were anticipating more than 7,000 hospital admissions and more than 800 deaths in Jamaica.

Minister of State in the Ministry of Agriculture and Land, Errol Ennis, said that government had already approved a J$13.5 million (J$67 = US$1) for the purchase of rapid test kits and other equipment to step up the country's surveillance on farms across the island. They have the capacity to test just over 12,000 samples with rapid results becoming available in about 28 to 32 minutes.

Acting Chief Media Officer, Dr Sheila Campbell-Forrester also updated the meeting on the malaria situation and the risk communication strategy used as part of measures to combat and control the spread.