Experts all point to extremely busy storm season for 2011
COLORADO, United States, Monday April 11, 2011 - The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University is forecasting well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and anticipates an above-average probability of a major hurricane landfall for the Caribbean.
The extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and landfall strike probability for 2011 report by the William Gray-led department specifically states that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season. The report states that 2011 will have about nine hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), five major hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0).
The Colorado officials said the cause of the stormy season was a combination of water surface temperatures in the Atlantic and neutral surface temperatures in the Pacific.
A busier-than-average hurricane season prediction has also been given by forecasters with AccuWeather.
“Last year we had the one system that came in pretty strong to the Lower Valley, and I think we are going to see a good chance of an early season again for Texas,” said expert senior meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Paul Pastelok of AccuWeather.com. “It is similar to last year, but places down to the south, like Mexico and Yucatán, could get hit just as hard as they did last year, and Texas could also see one or perhaps two systems that impact us early on in the season.”
The storms could come as early as mid-June and although the chances are higher for early in the season, Pastelok said, “I can’t tell you that nothing is going to happen late in the season.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is expected to release its forecast for the 2011 season in May. Officials said it could be close to the forecasts that already have been issued.
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