Disturbance on verge of becoming tropical depression

The highlighted area marked "2" indicates the position of the depression.

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, August 13, 2007 - A disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean is getting the attention of hurricane forecasters Monday as they believe it could become the next tropical depression.

A 1008MB low pressure on tropical wave is centered near 12.5 north and 25 west. It is accompanied by thunderstorms. It does not yet have a closed circulation because the eastern side has become exposed by strong upper level easterly winds.

However, the National Hurricane Centre in Miami said that "only a small increase in organisation would result in the formation of a tropical depression" as it continues to move westward at about 20mph.

Early tracking models were in rare agreement on the path - through the southern Windward Islands. Latest models run late Sunday night show massive disagreement on potential path and landfall - which is usually the normal case so early in the development cycle.

Early intensity models showed that it would slowly develop into a cyclone and reach wind speeds of around 60mph by the time it reaches the Caribbean archipelago on the weekend.

All the environmental conditions favour development - the sea surface temperatures are good, the upper levels winds are forecast to become better, and there is no dry air or Saharan dust in the atmopshere to hinder to development. All conditions appear to be working in favour of a development.

If it develops into a storm, it would be named Dean and would be the fourth tropical storm of the season.

The most active part of the season is approaching. It spans a 60-day window from August 15 to October 15. During this time storms tend to form in the tropical Atlantic Ocean or in the Caribbean Sea.