'Hurricane' Dean forecast to make Caribbean landfall Friday

15/08/2007 10:46:23
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image Tropical Storm Dean is forecast to become a hurricane and make landfall on Martinique Friday 17 August 2007 (Map: NOAA)

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, August 15, 2007 - Hurricane watches and warnings for parts of the Caribbean may be issued as early as Wednesday night as Tropical Storm Dean approaches the region. It poses a direct threat to Martinique, St Lucia, and Dominica. An airforce reconnaissance aircraft is due to investigate the storm early Thursday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Centre in Miami said that the cyclone intensified overnight and has a well defined circulation with "believable 45-50mph winds".

The strong northeasterly upper level winds which have been hindering a more rapid development have subsided but dry air and an inflow from cooler waters to the north are slowing the formation of deeper thunderstorms, said the hurricane centre Wednesday morning. It added that the cyclone should soon be encountering warmer waters which will aid further development.

They are therefore calling for steady strengthening and Dean to become a strong hurricane - possible a major hurricane - by the time it makes landfall in the central Caribbean on Friday night.

Computer tracking models are calling for Dean to make landfall in Martinique as a strong category 2 hurricane on Friday night. Hurricane- and tropical storm-force winds extending from the centre would also impact St Lucia and possibly Dominica.

The Barbados met office said Tuesday night that it expected the centre of Dean to pass about 100 miles north of the island sometime Thursday night or Friday morning.

There is a wide margin of error in hurricane forecasts and the National Hurricane Centre has therefore urged all residents of the Eastern Caribbean to closely monitor the progress of the system and to take advice from their local weather service.

At 500am EST the centre of Tropical Storm Dean was located about 1170 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 12.2 north and 44.2 west moving westward at 18mph with sustained wind speed of 50mph which extend up to 50 miles from the centre.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000mb.

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