Bad weather coming but no major tropical storms this week
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Monday, September 24, 2012 – A Tropical wave that spun-off the Cape Verdes last week is now nearing the Lesser Antilles.
Its tropical storm activity has continued to increase and thunderstorm squalls are expected to spread across the Lesser Antilles over the next 48 to 72 hours.
Forecasters are predicting potential for heavy rainfall that could see the islands of the Lesser Antilles receive 05-10mm rain per day with a maximum of 15-25mm per day falling over through the next 36 hours.
Currently, there are no named new named tropical storms expected to form this week but according to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, head of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, this should not promote complacency.
"Tropical waves continue to roll off Africa, so by no means does this mean that there will be no additional named storms this season," Kottlowski added, "It is not uncommon to have a few pauses in development, since we are getting past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season."
Kottlowski pointed out that he has noticed a lower number of tropical waves moving off Africa this season, when compared to average, but the season is not over.
As of September 20, there have been 34 tropical waves.
"During a typical season, there are between 50 and 60 tropical waves," Kottlowski stated, "The low number of waves thus far are mostly due to the very slow start prior to August and September."
While there has been a higher percentage of named storms – 14 – versus number of tropical waves so far this season, as compared to the average, several of these systems formed along fronts and were not associated with tropical waves.
"While wind shear and dry air are always issues during a season, but they seem to be significant players in limiting the intensity of most systems this season," Kottlowski concluded.