FLORIDA, United States, Sunday July 31, 2016 – Weather experts appear to have been right on track when they predicted that while July would continue to be a quiet month in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, August to November would see much more activity.
There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic, one of them with a high chance of becoming a storm this week. It had been a quiet Atlantic since Tropical Storm Danielle formed on June 20.
The first disturbance – a strong and fast-moving tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea designated Invest 97-L – is located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It has a 70 per cent chance of storm formation in the next five days. But there’s also a 40 per cent chance it could form even sooner – within the next 48 hours.
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami says that some gradual development of that system is possible during the next couple of days, and the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today.
“These conditions should spread westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach Hispaniola on Monday,” the NHC said, advising interests in these areas and elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea to monitor the progress of this system.
There is also some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
That system – designated Invest 96-L – is expected to continue moving westward at 10 to 15 miles per hour, and development is unlikely due to unfavourable upper-level winds, forecasters say.
It is anticipated that the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be the most active since 2012.
The Colorado State University (CSU) projects 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, close to the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. That forecast includes Hurricane Alex, a rare January hurricane, and tropical storms Bonnie, Colin and Danielle which previously formed, so it is expected there will be about 11 more storms before the November 30 end of the season.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast at the end of May, calling for 10 to 16 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.