FLORIDA, United States, Wednesday July 4, 2018 – This year’s Atlantic hurricane season should be even quieter than previously predicted.
Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University released a new forecast on Monday, and the prediction is that for the rest of the season, there will be 10 more named storms.
On April 5 and May 31, the Colorado team predicted that there would be 14 named storms. The first forecast was that seven would develop into hurricanes – three of them major (Category 3, 4, or 5). In May, that was revised downward to six, with two becoming major.
But according to the latest predictions, there will be 11 named storms overall (one system, Subtropical Storm Alberto, formed in May and is included in that number), and four will become hurricanes. Only one of them will be a major hurricane, according to the experts.
“We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity,” the Colorado State forecast said.
Hurricanes need the fuel of warm ocean water to develop and strengthen, and the forecasters noted that “the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased”.
“With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well,” Colorado State said.
The probability of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is now 31 per cent, compared to 53 per cent and 42 per cent in the April and May forecasts, respectively.
However, the Colorado State team reminded that people should prepare for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
In 2017, there were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. It was the fifth most active season since 1851.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to September 30.