BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, Monday November 12, 2018 – Forecasters are monitoring a “vigorous tropical wave” near the Leeward Islands that has a 50-50 chance of developing into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Patty later this week.
The system, which has surfaced just over two weeks before the end of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season – which runs June 1 to November 30 – is located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean.
It is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas have therefore been advised to closely monitor the progress of this system.
According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.
The chance of formation through the next 48 hours is 50 per cent, while that increases to 90 per cent over the next five days.
The Weather Channel notes that on average, one named storm and one hurricane form in the Atlantic basin during the month of November, and tropical depression and storm formation is most likely in November near the Lesser Antilles, in the Caribbean Sea or sometimes in the central Atlantic Ocean.
The last named storm was Hurricane Oscar late last month.