Cuba's tourism is not in decline — it Is in freefall

The numbers are stark. Between January and March 2026, Cuba received just 298,057 foreign visitors — a 48% collapse compared to the same period in 2025, according to official data from Cuba's National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). March was the cruelest month: only 35,561 tourists set foot on the island, one of the lowest figures in recent memory.

The trigger was US President Donald Trump's January 29 executive order threatening punitive tariffs on any nation supplying oil to Cuba. Already reeling from the loss of Venezuelan crude — which dried up after Washington's ousting of Nicolás Maduro — Cuba's nine international airports ran out of Jet A1 fuel. More than 1,700 flights were cancelled. Nearly 27,900 stranded Canadian tourists had to be repatriated, along with roughly 4,300 Russians.

Canada, historically Cuba's largest tourism market, sent 54.2% fewer visitors in Q1 2026 — just 124,794 arrivals. The US recorded a 53.8% drop in February alone. Russia fell 37.5%, France 44.4%, and the Cuban diaspora — mostly US-based — declined 42.8%. The only bright spots were Argentina (+35%) and China (+20%), hardly enough to offset the broader collapse.

The freefall is part of a longer unravelling. Cuba welcomed 4.8 million visitors in 2018. By 2025 that figure had shrunk to around 1.8 million. Tourism revenue between 2019 and 2025 fell nearly 70%. The Q1 2026 data suggests full-year arrivals could drop below one million — a threshold not breached since the economic devastation of the 1990s Special Period.

• 298,057 foreign visitors arrived in Cuba in Q1 2026 — down 48% year-on-year • March 2026 recorded just 35,561 tourist arrivals, one of the lowest in recent years • Trump's January 29 executive order threatened tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba • Over 1,700 flights were cancelled due to Jet A1 fuel shortages at Cuba's 9 international airports • Nearly 27,900 stranded Canadian tourists were repatriated • Canada arrivals fell 54.2%; US down 53.8% in February; Russia down 37.5% • Cuba's tourism peak was 4.8 million visitors in 2018; by 2025 it had fallen to ~1.8 million • Tourism revenue fell nearly 70% between 2019 and 2025

The human cost is staggering. Tourism directly employs over 300,000 Cubans and informally sustains an estimated one million more — taxi drivers, Airbnb hosts, tour guides — all watching their livelihoods evaporate. Between 2019 and 2025, tourism revenue fell nearly 70%; the Q1 2026 figures suggest the worst is still unfolding.

Canada — Cuba's largest source market — sent 54.2% fewer visitors in Q1 2026. Over 27,900 stranded Canadian tourists had to be repatriated after jet fuel shortages forced more than 1,700 flight cancellations.

The cruel irony is that while Cuba empties, the broader Caribbean is booming. Caribbean hotel occupancy hit 79% in March 2026 — the highest single-month figure in at least four years — as travelers simply rerouted. The Cayman Islands posted a 10% visitor surge in February alone. Cuba's catastrophe is, inadvertently, becoming the region's windfall.

Predictions: • Canada arrivals to Cuba will decline further in Q2 2026 as fuel shortages persist and airline routes remain suspended • Caribbean destinations like Barbados, Jamaica, and Cayman Islands will continue to absorb displaced Cuba-bound travelers through at least H1 2026 • Cuba's full-year 2026 arrivals could fall below one million for the first time since the early 1990s Special Period

Social Conversation: negative

Social media posts express concern over Trump's sanctions and interventionist policies toward Cuba, highlighting regional security and humanitarian issues.

US sanctionsregional securityhumanitarian assistance

Voices on X

"Donald Trump’s latest sanctions against Cuba have rightly drawn questions about the status of the Caribbean Community’s plan to provide humanitarian assistance to their regional neighbour.

Read more: https://t.co/nvAiEheJ8X https://t.co/FviUFMF9zd"

@JamaicaGleaner · Jamaica · 23h ago · 13 engagements · View on X

"Donald Trump’s pledge to take over Cuba almost immediately signals a massive shift toward interventionist policy in the Caribbean. This move could fundamentally reshape regional security and upend decades of diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana. https://t.co/OQgaFqH"

@Steffan0xd · 3d ago · 1 engagements · View on X

Based on 2 posts from X · May 5, 2026

Viewpoint: Ten former CARICOM heads of government — including ex-prime ministers Bruce Golding and PJ Patterson of Jamaica, Keith Rowley of Trinidad & Tobago, Kenny Anthony of St Lucia, Baldwin Spencer of Antigua, Edison James of Dominica, Tillman Thomas of Grenada, Said Musa of Belize, Freundel Stuart of Barbados, and former Guyanese president Donald Ramotar — issued a blistering joint condemnation of Trump's January 29 executive order. They called it "economic warfare" that inflicts "unconscionable suffering" on ordinary Cubans, warning that the principle of dialogue "cannot be abandoned on the altar of the mighty powerful waging political vendettas against smaller nations."

Viewpoint: David Denny, president of the Barbados-Cuba Friendship Association, is calling on Caribbean people to organise protests outside US embassies across the region. Denny argues that Trump's pledge to "take over" Cuba threatens the Caribbean's hard-won status as a zone of peace — a concern Cuban President Díaz-Canel echoed, warning that US military threats have reached a "dangerous and unprecedented level."

Viewpoint: No policy statement captures the human toll more sharply than the voices from Havana's streets. Taxi driver Rainier Hernandez, 38, once worked six-hour shifts ferrying tourists in his bubblegum-pink 1951 Chevrolet. Since January's oil blockade, he is lucky to get one or two paid hours a day. Tour guide Carlos Farinas, 29, is blunter: "If there is no tourism, there is no economy." For Cuba's estimated one million informal tourism workers, emigration is increasingly the only answer.